South Florida's Economic TroublesSouth Florida’s economy is halfway back to 2003. That’s the latest finding from the Herald’s Economic Time Machine, which compares current economic conditions to where they were before the recession. In the fall, the ETM matched current conditions to where they were in March 2002. On Friday, the ETM spit out a new date: June 2002. How does the Time Machine work? At ETM headquarters, we have 20 years worth of economic data for 60 local indicators — from airport traffic to unemployment claims. Economists and analysts helped us crunch the numbers into six indices, each representing a major component of South Florida economy. We call them gauges, and they are: Jobs, Housing, Tourism, Trade, Commerce and Mood. The ETM compares each index’s current level to where it was before the recession, which officially began in December 2007. Using each index’s weight (they’re listed above in order), the ETM then calculates an overall date for the recession that best compares to current conditions. The result so far: South Florida has lost a decade’s worth of economic growth. But it is inching closer to normalcy. Consider: • A rebounding job market gets most of the credit for the advance. With unemployment down and jobs expanding, the Jobs gauge surged forward from October 1995 to January 1996. • Housing continues to mirror the economy overall, since it also is stalled in June 2002. • With consumer sentiment near record lows statewide, the ETM’s Mood gauge remains rolled back to the late 1990s. Commerce, a measure of business activity, has advanced a bit: up to July 2003, from May 2003 at the last reading. • Tourism and Trade, two of the best performing ETM gauges, are now fully recovered, having passed levels hit in December 2007. If the hiring rebound continues, we should land in 2003 pretty soon. How exciting — only nine years back! File for Florida Unemployment. Resource blog: http://orlandoherald.blogspot.com/ #Florida #Unemployment Mark Quinones, of Unemployment-Extension.Org. |